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Mesoscale Discussion 400
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0400
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0954 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina...northeast South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191454Z - 191630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts
   and perhaps a tornado or two are possible in the next few hours.
   Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is
   uncertain in the near term, though a WW may be needed in association
   with upstream convection later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to deepen across eastern
   Tennessee, triggering a mass response in the low-level flow fields,
   with a broad low-level jet transporting deep (925-850 mb) moisture
   across the Coastal Piedmont Region. A confluence band, delineating
   the axis of the aforementioned low-level moisture transport, has
   triggered convection within the past few hours, within a
   destabilizing environment. 

   Currently, the ambient thermodynamic environment is characterized by
   deep low-level moisture, but with mediocre low and mid-level lapse
   rates (around 5.5-6.0 C/km throughout a deep tropospheric layer),
   with around 500 J/kg MLCAPE common across the area. Regarding the
   kinematic environment, effective bulk shear values of 40-50 knots
   and 250 m2/s2 effective SRH is in place across much of the
   Carolinas. Given further intensification of the surface low, the
   aforementioned shear environment is expected to stay in place over
   the next several hours. In addition, with further heating, MLCAPE
   may increase to 1000 J/kg. This buoyancy/shear parameter space may
   support organized convection, including rotating cells capable of
   producing isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado over
   the next few hours. Still, convection within this confluence zone is
   separated from stronger deep-layer ascent, and given the relatively
   poor lapse rate environment, the severe threat is expected to remain
   relatively sparse in the short term.
   A WW issuance is uncertain in the near term, though a WW issuance is
   likely in association with the development of upstream convection
   across the western Carolinas, when deep-layer ascent has increased.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33137918 33547953 34947926 35507888 35867807 35857750
               35757732 35517719 34357777 33467875 33137918 

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