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Mesoscale Discussion 480
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0480
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

   Areas affected...North-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 301853Z - 302100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop this afternoon across
   parts of north-central Texas. Large hail, wind damage and an
   isolated tornado threat can be expected. Weather watch issuance will
   likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a stationary front
   located in southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. The airmass
   southeast of the front is moderately unstable with surface dewpoints
   near 70 F. MLCAPE values are generally estimated in the 2000 to 3000
   J/kg range by the RAP. In addition, the RAP has moderate deep-layer
   shear across north-central Texas with 0-6 km shear estimated in the
   35 to 45 kt range. This will be favorable for supercells. The main
   uncertainty is the exact timing of initiation. The latest radar
   imagery shows weak echos in the vicinity of Stephenville. The
   current thinking is that a storm will develop in this area sometime
   between 20Z and 21Z. After that, convective coverage is expected to
   expand with a cluster moving east-northeastward toward the
   Dallas-Fort Worth metro area, possibly approaching the Red River
   later this afternoon. Supercells will likely be associated with
   large hail and wind damage. An isolated tornado threat is also
   expected as low-level shear increases during the late afternoon and
   early evening.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 04/30/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31709733 31179776 31079894 31269975 31670026 32459997
               33319943 33929880 33969756 33889690 33699662 33319652
               32839675 31709733 

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