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Mesoscale Discussion 483
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0483
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0326 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

   Areas affected...Oklahoma...Northwest Arkansas...Southwest
   Missouri...Far Southeast Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 111...

   Valid 302026Z - 302230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 111 continues.

   SUMMARY...A tornado threat is likely to continue across WW 111
   through late this afternoon. Tornadoes, large hail and wind damage
   will be possible over the next couple of hours. A potential for
   strong tornadoes will also exist.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary front
   across north-central Oklahoma. Tornadic supercells are ongoing to
   the southeast of the boundary from just north of Tulsa to southeast
   of Tulsa. Surface dewpoints in the Tulsa area are in the upper 60s
   and lower 70s F, contributing to moderate instability with MLCAPE
   values of 2000-2500 J/kg. In addition, the Tulsa WSR-88D VWP shows a
   looped hodograph with 0-3 km storm relative helicity near 300 m2/s2.
   This will continue to be favorable for tornadoes with the more
   dominant supercells. Low-level shear is forecast to strengthen even
   more over the next few hours, suggesting a potential for strong
   tornadoes will exist. The low-level shear also appears favorable for
   tornadoes across a large area including southwest Missouri and
   northwest Arkansas. The amount of instability and deep-layer shear
   will also be favorable for large hail and wind damage with
   supercells and the more organized multicells.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 04/30/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35329513 35329574 36429569 36899544 37179504 37279453
               37249377 36879361 36569366 36119399 35329513 

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