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Mesoscale Discussion 542
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0542
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0301 PM CDT Sun May 05 2019

   Areas affected...TX/OK Panhandles into the TX South Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 052001Z - 052200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Area is being monitored for supercell development. The
   initial threat will be very large hail, with some increase in the
   tornado threat possible toward evening. Watch issuance is possible
   by 21-22Z.

   DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently developed across the far
   western OK Panhandle, with additional towering cumulus noted further
   south to the west of Lubbock. The short-term convective evolution is
   uncertain, due to a rather nebulous surface pattern with limited
   surface convergence noted as of 20Z. However, continued heating/deep
   mixing should eventually remove the remaining MLCINH across the
   region and lead to at least widely scattered thunderstorm

   As MLCINH is removed and MLCAPE increases into the 2000-3000 J/kg
   range later this afternoon, and effective shear remains in the 35-45
   kt range, the environment will become supportive of supercell
   development. Very large hail will be the initial threat, given steep
   midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold temperatures aloft. Toward
   evening, as convection moves into a region of somewhat richer
   boundary-layer moisture and some increase in the low-level jet
   occurs, the tornado threat may increase somewhat from the eastern
   Panhandles into northwest TX. 

   While coverage of storms remains somewhat uncertain, especially in
   the short term, watch issuance is possible given the potential for
   multiple supercells across the region.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/05/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33060296 35310293 36890285 36930120 36960023 34860006
               33150039 33040068 33030114 33020214 33060296 

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