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Mesoscale Discussion 570
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0570
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 PM CDT Tue May 07 2019

   Areas affected...Southeastern Kansas and adjacent portions of
   northern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071911Z - 072115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of storms may strengthen and become
   better organized through 3-5 PM CDT, possible becoming accompanied
   by increasing potential for strong surface gusts approaching severe
   limits.  It is not certain that a watch will be needed, but trends
   will continue to be monitored for this possibility.

   DISCUSSION...A sustained cluster of thunderstorms to the
   west/northwest of Wichita has been supported by large-scale ascent
   associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, to the cool
   side of the stalled surface frontal zone.  This appears close enough
   to the front that continuing inflow of seasonably moist and
   destabilizing air from the warm sector may maintain activity and
   contribute to substantial further intensification through mid to
   late afternoon.

   As this occurs, there appears potential for a gradually
   strengthening surface cold pool, coupled with at least modest shear
   in the convective layer, to contribute to the evolution of a better
   organized mesoscale convective system, with increasing potential for
   strong surface gusts.  Despite being embedded within rather weak
   (less than 20 kt) west-southwesterly ambient mean flow, storm-scale
   process could lead to peak gusts at least approaching severe limits.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/07/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38369707 38769580 38429489 37099494 36679724 36759836
               37499888 38369707 

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