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Mesoscale Discussion 571
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0571
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 PM CDT Tue May 07 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of west Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 071922Z - 072045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next 1-2
   hours.  A Tornado Watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus is developing to the east of a slowly-advancing
   dryline aided by forcing for ascent in the left exit region of an
   approaching upper jet.  Modifying RAP short-term forecast soundings
   for current surface conditions suggests most of the MLCIN has eroded
   over the area with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE.  Therefore, despite
   some tempering of the surface heating from a thin layer of cirrus
   overspreading the area, widely-scattered to scattered thunderstorms
   are expected to develop in the next hour.

   Although deep-layer shear has been marginal for supercells (25-35
   kt) through early afternoon, it has increased to 35-45 kt the last
   hour with the strengthening mid-upper flow.  Given the
   moderate-to-strong instability and steep mid-level lapse rates,
   thunderstorms should become severe rather quickly, with supercell
   modes dominant initially.  Somewhat veered low-level near-surface
   winds in the 10-15 kt range is limiting low-level shear, and the
   tornado potential, at the moment.  Further limited tornado potential
   is some weakness in the 850-700 mb flow seen in forecast soundings
   through early evening.  However, temperature-dewpoint spreads
   holding in the 12-16 deg C range and strengthening/backing 500-1000
   m AGL winds in the next few hours should increase the tornado threat
   somewhat by 21-22z.  A Tornado Watch will likely be needed in the
   next 1-2 hours.

   ..Coniglio/Guyer.. 05/07/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33370098 32950125 32650179 32580253 32680291 33140301
               33630293 34100293 34240291 34500284 34650259 34700179
               34710151 34540115 34150102 33370098 

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