Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 571
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 571 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0571
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 PM CDT Tue May 07 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of west Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 071922Z - 072045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next 1-2
   hours.  A Tornado Watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus is developing to the east of a slowly-advancing
   dryline aided by forcing for ascent in the left exit region of an
   approaching upper jet.  Modifying RAP short-term forecast soundings
   for current surface conditions suggests most of the MLCIN has eroded
   over the area with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE.  Therefore, despite
   some tempering of the surface heating from a thin layer of cirrus
   overspreading the area, widely-scattered to scattered thunderstorms
   are expected to develop in the next hour.

   Although deep-layer shear has been marginal for supercells (25-35
   kt) through early afternoon, it has increased to 35-45 kt the last
   hour with the strengthening mid-upper flow.  Given the
   moderate-to-strong instability and steep mid-level lapse rates,
   thunderstorms should become severe rather quickly, with supercell
   modes dominant initially.  Somewhat veered low-level near-surface
   winds in the 10-15 kt range is limiting low-level shear, and the
   tornado potential, at the moment.  Further limited tornado potential
   is some weakness in the 850-700 mb flow seen in forecast soundings
   through early evening.  However, temperature-dewpoint spreads
   holding in the 12-16 deg C range and strengthening/backing 500-1000
   m AGL winds in the next few hours should increase the tornado threat
   somewhat by 21-22z.  A Tornado Watch will likely be needed in the
   next 1-2 hours.

   ..Coniglio/Guyer.. 05/07/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33370098 32950125 32650179 32580253 32680291 33140301
               33630293 34100293 34240291 34500284 34650259 34700179
               34710151 34540115 34150102 33370098 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 01, 1970
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities