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Mesoscale Discussion 576
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0576
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0536 PM CDT Tue May 07 2019

   Areas affected...The Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 144...

   Valid 072236Z - 072330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144 continues.

   SUMMARY...Continued storm intensification and new development is
   expected over the next few hours. All severe weather hazards are
   expected including large hail (some very large), damaging winds, and
   tornadoes (some strong).

   DISCUSSION...Numerous storms have developed in the Texas and
   Oklahoma Panhandles with many reports of large hail up to this
   point. Radar trends and surface observations suggest a large cold
   pool has started to develop northwest of Amarillo. This is likely
   the beginning of the cold pool which will eventually move eastward
   across the Texas panhandle with an increasing damaging wind threat
   through the evening.

   The storms with the greatest hail and tornado potential will be
   south and east of this outflow boundary where moderate to strong
   buoyancy and strong deep layer shear exists. This improving shear
   profile can be seen between the 17Z and 21Z AMA RAOB where effective
   shear increased from 39 knots to 50 knots and 0-1km SRH increased
   from 45 m2/s2 to 140 m2/s2. This increasing shear is expected to
   continue to improve through the evening as mid-level winds increase,
   surface winds back, and the low-level jet strengthens.

   Given this improving shear profile, the tornado threat is expected
   to increase substantially through the evening. This will especially
   be the case for storms which remain discrete ahead of the eventual
   squall line. Currently the storm with the highest tornado potential
   is likely the mature supercell in Swisher county, Texas. This storm
   is discrete and expected to remain so for awhile. In addition, the
   isallobaric response of the low-level wind field has backed surface
   winds substantially in the vicinity of this storm in the last 2
   hours. Additional discrete supercells may also develop in this
   environment (evidenced by storms currently developing in the eastern
   Texas panhandle). Any storms in this environment will pose a threat
   for tornadoes, some potentially significant.

   ..Bentley.. 05/07/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36000270 36950182 37080097 37000017 35699998 34840003
               34330016 34010115 33870172 33950212 34340250 35430264

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