Mesoscale Discussion 0579
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0825 PM CDT Tue May 07 2019
Areas affected...The Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado Watch 144...145...
Valid 080125Z - 080300Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144, 145 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues across tornado watch
144 and 145 with a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and
DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has increased significantly across
the Texas Panhandle over the past hour as the low-level jet
strengthens and deep layer ascent increases. This activity is likely
to congeal into an MCS with an increasing severe wind threat, but it
remains unclear how this will evolve. The last several runs of the
HRRR suggested that storms northwest of Lubbock would be the
beginning of a bowing segment that would move northeastward,
however, earlier storms have worked over this airmass somewhat
already. Therefore, it remains unclear whether these storms will be
able to organize with eastward extent.
Additionally, a line of storms have developed along the TX/OK border
with additional development on the southern edge. This line of
storms may also be the beginning of the forward propagating MCS.
Regardless of the exact evolution, increasing forcing for ascent in
an unstable and moderately sheared environment will continue to
support all severe weather hazards including large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33680268 34360252 35360213 36170142 36550079 36590034
36350004 35479994 34740000 34090001 33480062 33350161