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Mesoscale Discussion 656
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0656
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0700 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of southwest Kansas and eastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 180000Z - 180200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Towering cumulus have formed in an area of increased
   convergence along the dryline. These storms will be capable of large
   hail and damaging wind gusts. A threat for a tornado cannot be ruled
   out as well with the expectation that low-level moisture and wind
   fields will improve with time. A watch may be needed should
   confidence in storm coverage/sustenance increase.

   DISCUSSION...An area of increases surface convergence has become
   apparent on visible satellite along the dryline from near Garden
   City, KS southward to near Beaver, OK. This appears to be in
   response to an ejecting wave, as seen on moisture channel imagery,
   moving rapidly out of northeast New Mexico into southwest Kansas.
   While storm coverage is still a bit uncertain, any storm that can
   form will likely be discrete given the 45-50 kts of effective shear
   near perpendicular to the boundary. With steep mid-level lapse rates
   and large instability (nearing 3000 J/kg MLCAPE), large hail will be
   a concern. Damaging wind gusts will also be possible.

   A tornado threat also cannot be ruled out. Dewpoints range from the
   upper 60s in OK to low 60s in southwest KS. Localized pressure falls
   have been maximized in northwest OK and have caused surface winds to
   back to southeasterly and KDDC VAD profiles show relatively strong
   low-level veering. With time, the low-level moisture/wind fields
   should improve as the low-level jet increases. A watch may be needed
   if storm coverage/sustenance is more than anticipated.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/18/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37840096 38160085 38480027 38299988 37399964 36879963
               36439996 36340059 36610085 37840096 

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