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Mesoscale Discussion 663
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0663
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1147 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

   Areas of western Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 180447Z - 180715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...An increase in storm development/coverage over the next
   few hours is possible over portions of western Texas.  This could
   require new WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a developing supercell storm
   over Crockett County Texas, along with hints of ascent/mid-level
   convective development over far West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
    This is occurring ahead of a disturbance aloft evident in WV loop
   crossing the New Mexico vicinity at this time.  Low-level southeast
   winds have increased this evening, and as the upper short-wave
   trough approaches, a fairly pronounced increase in QG ascent is
   expected, spreading across western Texas toward southwestern
   Oklahoma overnight.  

   With steep lapse rates aloft contributing to substantial CAPE --
   albeit largely elevated above a slightly stable/capped boundary
   layer, expect convection to increase rather rapidly overnight,
   eventually growing upscale linearly -- as supported by the
   preponderance of CAM output.  While damaging wind risk should be
   confined to locally more intense storms given the slightly stable
   boundary layer, large hail risk may be sufficient to warrant
   eventual WW issuance.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/18/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29500219 30180297 31300279 32100236 33100132 33449991
               33169811 31229894 30030040 29500219 

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