|Mesoscale Discussion 674|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0674
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019
Areas affected...portions of southern KS and northern OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186...
Valid 182307Z - 190030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186
SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue across southwest KS and
northwest OK this evening. The threat may persist eastward into
south-central KS/north-central OK through late evening.
DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms developed late this
afternoon across southwest KS and northwest OK in the vicinity of a
surface low and surging dryline. The airmass across WW 186 and
points downstream toward the I-35 corridor in south-central
KS/north-central OK as recovered somewhat from earlier convection
and cloud cover. Latest mesoanalysis shows that dewpoints have
increased 1-2 degrees over the last couple of hours and weak
destabilization has occurred as temperatures warmed into the upper
60s and low 70s. Further east into southeast KS/northeast OK, a
fairly pronounced cold pool was evident in observational data.
Forecast guidance varies considerably, but at least weak
instability, steep lapse rates and moderate deep layer shear are
expected to persist across the area through the evening hours. It's
unclear how far east the threat may persist, but current thinking is
that the aforementioned cold pool should limit severe potential
across far eastern KS/OK and western MO, but trends will be
In the more immediate future, a severe threat may extend a bit east
of the current extent of WW 186. A new downstream watch or an
aerial/temporal extension by WFOs ICT and OUN may be needed.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37180065 37860036 38229927 38329838 38379750 38129689
37859656 37379652 37069647 36559668 36279709 36099747
35949829 35929881 36099947 36390014 36720049 37180065
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