Mesoscale Discussion 0674
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0607 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

   Areas affected...portions of southern KS and northern OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186...

   Valid 182307Z - 190030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue across southwest KS and
   northwest OK this evening. The threat may persist eastward into
   south-central KS/north-central OK through late evening.

   DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms developed late this
   afternoon across southwest KS and northwest OK in the vicinity of a
   surface low and surging dryline. The airmass across WW 186 and
   points downstream toward the I-35 corridor in south-central
   KS/north-central OK as recovered somewhat from earlier convection
   and cloud cover. Latest mesoanalysis shows that dewpoints have
   increased 1-2 degrees over the last couple of hours and weak
   destabilization has occurred as temperatures warmed into the upper
   60s and low 70s. Further east into southeast KS/northeast OK, a
   fairly pronounced cold pool was evident in observational data.
   Forecast guidance varies considerably, but at least weak
   instability, steep lapse rates and moderate deep layer shear are
   expected to persist across the area through the evening hours. It's
   unclear how far east the threat may persist, but current thinking is
   that the aforementioned cold pool should limit severe potential
   across far eastern KS/OK and western MO, but trends will be
   monitored. 

   In the more immediate future, a severe threat may extend a bit east
   of the current extent of WW 186. A new downstream watch or an
   aerial/temporal extension by WFOs ICT and OUN may be needed.

   ..Leitman.. 05/18/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37180065 37860036 38229927 38329838 38379750 38129689
               37859656 37379652 37069647 36559668 36279709 36099747
               35949829 35929881 36099947 36390014 36720049 37180065