|Mesoscale Discussion 703|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0703
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019
Areas affected...Texas Panhandle/West Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 197...
Valid 201837Z - 201930Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues.
SUMMARY...Rapid development of tornadic supercells expected in the
next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across the Texas
Panhandle and west Texas within an environment characterized by
MLCAPE of 3500-4000 J/kg, effective bulk shear of 50-60 kt, and
effective SRH of 300+ m^2/s^2. In addition, observed soundings
launched by the TORUS field program in this area (Wellington, TX)
indicate weak CIN and a favorable low-level kinematic environment
for tornadoes in proximity to the developing convection, with a
sickle-shaped hodograph and 0-1 km AGL SRH near 300 m^2/s^2.
Convection that is developing now is expected to mature quickly, and
given the ambient environment, storms should quickly evolve into
supercell structures capable of significant, long-tracked tornadoes
within the next hour or two -- in agreement with SPC objective
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33120006 32720106 33020183 34230183 35030080 35110006
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