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Mesoscale Discussion 703
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0703
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

   Areas affected...Texas Panhandle/West Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 197...

   Valid 201837Z - 201930Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues.

   SUMMARY...Rapid development of tornadic supercells expected in the
   next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across the Texas
   Panhandle and west Texas within an environment characterized by
   MLCAPE of 3500-4000 J/kg, effective bulk shear of 50-60 kt, and
   effective SRH of 300+ m^2/s^2. In addition, observed soundings
   launched by the TORUS field program in this area (Wellington, TX)
   indicate weak CIN and a favorable low-level kinematic environment
   for tornadoes in proximity to the developing convection, with a
   sickle-shaped hodograph and 0-1 km AGL SRH near 300 m^2/s^2.
   Convection that is developing now is expected to mature quickly, and
   given the ambient environment, storms should quickly evolve into
   supercell structures capable of significant, long-tracked tornadoes
   within the next hour or two -- in agreement with SPC objective

   ..Karstens.. 05/20/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33120006 32720106 33020183 34230183 35030080 35110006
               33999992 33120006 

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