|Mesoscale Discussion 705|
< Previous MD Next MD >
Mesoscale Discussion 0705
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019
Areas affected...southwest and central OK
Concerning...Tornado Watch 199...
Valid 202046Z - 202145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 199 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado potential will likely increase across southwest OK
during the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several quasi-discrete supercells
over the eastern TX Panhandle into the Low Rolling Plains.
Additional storm development is possible over southwest OK ahead of
the supercells located to the west. It is less clear regarding
convective initiation and supercell development farther east towards
the I-44/I-35 corridors (besides the Logan County supercell).
Surface analysis shows lower 70s surface dewpoints with temperatures
ranging from the lower 80s over southwest OK to the middle 70s near
OKC. A composite front/outflow-reinforced boundary is located
across the eastern TX Panhandle arcing to the east-northeast to near
Stillwater, OK. South of this boundary, a very unstable to
extremely unstable airmass will support intense updraft development
with existing storms. KTLX VAD data shows a larger hodograph
compared to KFDR's VAD (0-1km SRH of 300 and 200 m2/s2,
Short-term model guidance has trended away from a possible scenario
of discrete storm development over south-central OK. The most
probable scenario involves several tornadic supercells likely moving
across southwest OK and approaching the I-40 corridor west of the
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34820037 35489911 36019800 35849744 34419956 34820037
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home