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Mesoscale Discussion 705
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0705
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

   Areas affected...southwest and central OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 199...

   Valid 202046Z - 202145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 199 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado potential will likely increase across southwest OK
   during the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several quasi-discrete supercells
   over the eastern TX Panhandle into the Low Rolling Plains. 
   Additional storm development is possible over southwest OK ahead of
   the supercells located to the west.  It is less clear regarding
   convective initiation and supercell development farther east towards
   the I-44/I-35 corridors (besides the Logan County supercell).

   Surface analysis shows lower 70s surface dewpoints with temperatures
   ranging from the lower 80s over southwest OK to the middle 70s near
   OKC.  A composite front/outflow-reinforced boundary is located
   across the eastern TX Panhandle arcing to the east-northeast to near
   Stillwater, OK.  South of this boundary, a very unstable to
   extremely unstable airmass will support intense updraft development
   with existing storms.  KTLX VAD data shows a larger hodograph
   compared to KFDR's VAD (0-1km SRH of 300 and 200 m2/s2,
   respectively).

   Short-term model guidance has trended away from a possible scenario
   of discrete storm development over south-central OK.  The most
   probable scenario involves several tornadic supercells likely moving
   across southwest OK and approaching the I-40 corridor west of the
   OKC metro.

   ..Smith.. 05/20/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34820037 35489911 36019800 35849744 34419956 34820037 

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