Mesoscale Discussion 0711
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0738 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

   Areas affected...Southwestern Missouri...western Arkansas...eastern
   Oklahoma...and far southeastern Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 200...

   Valid 210038Z - 210215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 200 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across northern portions of WW
   200, with a far more conditional severe threat across portions of
   west-central to south-central Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...A warm front continues to lift northward and currently
   extends from near JLN to SGF and near FLP.  Showers and
   thunderstorms continue to persist along and south of this boundary
   and on the leading edge of a mature MCS now entering northwestern
   portions of WW 200.  The environment across the WW area remains
   moderately unstable (especially south of the front), with strongly
   veering and increasing wind with height contributing supportive of
   organized convection with a risk for all modes of severe weather. 
   Over the next couple of hours, the greatest risk will persist across
   areas southwestern Missouri, northeastern Oklahoma, and far
   southeastern Kansas where the deepest convection persists and
   occasional mesocyclogenesis occurs in tandem with isolated cells
   interacting favorably with the warm front.  Strengthening low-level
   wind fields through 03-06Z will continue to encourage both northward
   movement of the warm frontal-zone and strengthening low-level shear,
   further continuing the severe threat.  Storms may persist beyond the
   eastern spatial extent of WW 200 in tandem with the northward-moving
   warm front, and local spatial extensions of the WW should be
   considered in this scenario.

   Farther south into central Arkansas, convection has waned a bit -
   probably as a result of 1) negligible forcing for ascent and 2)
   cooling surface temperatures.  If these trends continue over the
   next hour or so, portions of west-central and central Arkansas may
   be removed from WW 200.

   Lastly, open warm-sector convection persists despite weak mid-level
   inhibition across east-central Oklahoma and into north-central
   Arkansas.  Current trends suggest that the severe threat with these
   storms will probably isolated and may be mostly tied to the
   evolution of the northeastern OK MCS.  Should any storm deepen in
   this environment out ahead of the MCS, supercellular wind fields
   will promote updraft rotation with all severe hazards possible.

   ..Cook.. 05/21/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34820037 35489911 36019800 35849744 34419956 34820037