Mesoscale Discussion 0736
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0505 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Oklahoma...southeastern
   Kansas...southwestern Missouri and adjacent northwestern Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 212...

   Valid 222205Z - 222330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 212 continues.

   SUMMARY...Potential for a strong tornado or two appears likely to
   increase near and south through east of Tulsa between now and 6-8 PM
   CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Discrete supercell development is ongoing, particularly
   near the Okmulgee and Stillwater areas.  This is occurring in the
   presence of rather strong (90-120 m) 12 hour 500 mb height rises,
   and it remains at least somewhat unclear what impact this will have
   on subsequent development.  However, activity is being aided by
   large-scale forcing for ascent associated with warm advection, and
   appears generally north of stronger mid-level inhibition associated
   with warmer elevated mixed-layer air (as inferred by 700 mb temps
   around +10 C to the south and southwest).

   Cells now approaching Okmulgee appear increasingly rooted in the
   boundary layer, which is characterized by mixed-layer CAPE
   approaching 4000 J/kg.  Embedded within strongly sheared
   southwesterly deep layer mean ambient flow on the order of 40 kt,
   there appears considerable potential for further intensification and
   progression into at least southern/eastern portions of the Greater
   Tulsa metropolitan area through 23-01Z.  Models suggest that this
   will coincide with strengthening of southerly 850 mb flow to around
   40 kt, with enlarging clockwise curved low-level hodographs becoming
   supportive of continuing/increasing tornadic potential.

   ..Kerr.. 05/22/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36249704 37269533 37029421 36439420 35579496 35039653
               35309697 36249704