|Mesoscale Discussion 736|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0736
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019
Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Oklahoma...southeastern
Kansas...southwestern Missouri and adjacent northwestern Arkansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 212...
Valid 222205Z - 222330Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 212 continues.
SUMMARY...Potential for a strong tornado or two appears likely to
increase near and south through east of Tulsa between now and 6-8 PM
DISCUSSION...Discrete supercell development is ongoing, particularly
near the Okmulgee and Stillwater areas. This is occurring in the
presence of rather strong (90-120 m) 12 hour 500 mb height rises,
and it remains at least somewhat unclear what impact this will have
on subsequent development. However, activity is being aided by
large-scale forcing for ascent associated with warm advection, and
appears generally north of stronger mid-level inhibition associated
with warmer elevated mixed-layer air (as inferred by 700 mb temps
around +10 C to the south and southwest).
Cells now approaching Okmulgee appear increasingly rooted in the
boundary layer, which is characterized by mixed-layer CAPE
approaching 4000 J/kg. Embedded within strongly sheared
southwesterly deep layer mean ambient flow on the order of 40 kt,
there appears considerable potential for further intensification and
progression into at least southern/eastern portions of the Greater
Tulsa metropolitan area through 23-01Z. Models suggest that this
will coincide with strengthening of southerly 850 mb flow to around
40 kt, with enlarging clockwise curved low-level hodographs becoming
supportive of continuing/increasing tornadic potential.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36249704 37269533 37029421 36439420 35579496 35039653
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