|Mesoscale Discussion 737|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0737
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019
Areas affected...Much of southwest into central Oklahoma and
adjacent northwest Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 211...
Valid 222238Z - 230015Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 211 continues.
SUMMARY...Potential for supercell development continues, but appears
increasingly conditional late this afternoon and evening.
DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorm development, which likely occurred
in response to convective temperatures being reached near the
dryline across southwest Oklahoma, has weakened as it advected
northeast of the westward retreating dryline, within strongly
sheared 40+ kt southwesterly ambient mean flow. Much of southern
Oklahoma is still under the influence of 60-90 mb 12-hour 500 mb
height rises, and lower/mid tropospheric inhibition associated with
the northern periphery of a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air
(as currently inferred by 700 mb temps around +10 C). However, at
least attempts at vigorous thunderstorm development are still
evident, particularly just south of the Oklahoma City metro. If
activity can root within the strongly unstable boundary layer, there
remains at least potential for rapid supercell thunderstorm
Otherwise, thunderstorm development is currently increasing along
and just north of the slowly northward retreating surface front
across north central Oklahoma. Some of this may pose at least an
increase in risk for severe hail through early evening.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35679869 35919761 35809703 35249658 34659666 34139683
33859812 33549885 34009920 34739902 35679869
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