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Mesoscale Discussion 737
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0737
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0538 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

   Areas affected...Much of southwest into central Oklahoma and
   adjacent northwest Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 211...

   Valid 222238Z - 230015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 211 continues.

   SUMMARY...Potential for supercell development continues, but appears
   increasingly conditional late this afternoon and evening.

   DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorm development, which likely occurred
   in response to convective temperatures being reached near the
   dryline across southwest Oklahoma, has weakened as it advected
   northeast of the westward retreating dryline, within strongly
   sheared 40+ kt southwesterly ambient mean flow.  Much of southern
   Oklahoma is still under the influence of 60-90 mb 12-hour 500 mb
   height rises, and lower/mid tropospheric inhibition associated with
   the northern periphery of a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air
   (as currently inferred by 700 mb temps around +10 C).  However, at
   least attempts at vigorous thunderstorm development are still
   evident, particularly just south of the Oklahoma City metro.  If
   activity can root within the strongly unstable boundary layer, there
   remains at least potential for rapid supercell thunderstorm

   Otherwise, thunderstorm development is currently increasing along
   and just north of the slowly northward retreating surface front
   across north central Oklahoma.  Some of this may pose at least an
   increase in risk for severe hail through early evening.

   ..Kerr.. 05/22/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35679869 35919761 35809703 35249658 34659666 34139683
               33859812 33549885 34009920 34739902 35679869 

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