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Mesoscale Discussion 740
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0740
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0732 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

   Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas and parts of
   southwest into central Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 212...

   Valid 230032Z - 230200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 212 continues.

   SUMMARY...Risk for a strong tornado or two will continue, mainly
   near the Interstate 44 corridor of northeast Oklahoma through 8-10
   PM.  A transition to primarily a severe hail/wind risk is expected
   to gradually occur across the Missouri Ozarks and lower Missouri
   Valley by late evening.

   DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development now progressing
   northeast of the Tulsa area remains generally
   discrete/supercellular.  In the presence of lingering large boundary
   layer CAPE, strong deep layer vertical shear and enlarging low-level
   hodographs, there still appears potential for a strong tornado to
   form near the Interstate 44 corridor of northeast Oklahoma through

   Otherwise, thunderstorm activity, including a few embedded
   supercells, has become increasingly numerous along a line northeast
   and east of Bartlesville OK through areas north/east of Sedalia MO. 
   This is focused along a cold frontal zone, which is forecast to
   slowly advance eastward across the lower Missouri Valley and
   Missouri Ozarks vicinity through late evening.  A gradual
   consolidation of storms is expected to take place in response to
   lift associated with warm advection, with perhaps a tendency for
   convection to become undercut by the front.  As this occurs, the
   primary severe hazard probably will transition to severe hail with
   potential for strong convective gusts to increase.

   ..Kerr.. 05/23/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36599629 37799496 38749382 39369227 38489158 37609295
               36809398 36079499 35819589 35919627 36599629 

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