Mesoscale Discussion 0752
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

   Areas affected...Southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 231842Z - 231945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective initiation occurring along/south of a warm
   front. Large hail is the primary threat, and a few tornadoes are
   possible south/near the front. Watch likely, though timing
   uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Regional surface observations and objective
   mesoanalysis shows an east/west oriented warm front over the
   northern tier of counties in Oklahoma, moving quickly northward, on
   the precipice of entering southern Kansas. Regional satellite shows
   boundary-layer cumulus developing along the front and steadily
   obtaining greater vertical depth. Regional radar shows weak echoes
   with this activity. It appears this will be a mechanism for
   convective development over the next few hours. Storms that develop
   along the front should become quickly elevated, although any storms
   that linger or are able to ride along the boundary could pose a
   tornado threat. However, the thermodynamic/kinematic environment
   north of the boundary is quite support of large hail (MUCAPE
   2000-2500 J/kg and effective shear 50-55 kt).  

   South of the warm front, additional convective development is
   possible in the warm sector. Here, temperatures are in the low 80s F
   with dew points in the low 70s F. Any storms that develop here will
   also pose a large hail threat. A tornado threat will also exist with
   this activity that resides in the warm sector or as it crosses the
   warm front.

   A watch is being considered for this region, however the timing of
   watch issuance remains uncertain.

   ..Karstens/Hart.. 05/23/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36589747 36229823 35989970 36640052 37530043 38259932
               38139804 37799758 37419745 37189740 36959737 36589747