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Mesoscale Discussion 753
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0753
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

   Areas affected...TX Panhandle...Far Western OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 231847Z - 232045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards,
   including very large hail and tornadoes, are expected to develop
   across the TX Panhandle this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Based on the wind fields in the 18Z observations a
   triple point/surface low exists just west of AMA with the thermal
   fields indicating a dryline extends southwestward to HOB. Another
   low appears to exist northeast of AMA (near BGD), with a warm front
   extending northeastward to the central KS/OK border. Strong moisture
   convergence continues in the vicinity of AMA as the composite
   outflow/cold front continues to sag slowly southeastward while
   strong southeasterly surface winds and moisture advection continues
   south of it. 

   The air mass along and south/east of these boundaries continues to
   destabilize. Cumulus field across east-central NM/western TX
   Panhandle continues to deepen and the 18Z AMA sounding shows very
   little convective inhibition remaining. Overall expectation is for
   convective initiation to occur around 20Z. An initially discrete
   mode is anticipated, with supercells capable of all severe hazards
   likely. Tornadoes and very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in
   diameter) may occur, particularly as storms move east/northeastward
   into the central and eastern TX Panhandle where surface winds are
   more southeasterly. Given the strength of the low-level shear, a
   strong, long-track tornado may occur if storms are able to remain
   discrete enough and do not grow upscale.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/23/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34420259 35770168 36320088 36519998 36189947 35389955
               33640083 33000263 34420259 

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