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Mesoscale Discussion 758
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0758
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0548 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

   Areas affected...Texas South Plains/Panhandle into southwestern

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 221...

   Valid 232248Z - 240015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 221 continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms likely will continue to increase in coverage
   and intensity through 7-9 PM, accompanied by increasing severe
   weather potential.

   DISCUSSION...As a mid-level short wave trough gradually pivots north
   northeastward through the central High Plains, an increase in
   vigorous thunderstorm development is ongoing near/west through
   northeast of Amarillo.  This is being supported by inflow of
   seasonably high boundary layer moisture content, which is
   contributing to large CAPE in the presence of steep lower/mid
   tropospheric lapse rates.  These storms are focused along and just
   to the cool side of a stalling or slow moving surface front, with
   stronger cells, including supercells, likely capable of producing
   severe hail into the evening hours.  There probably is some
   continuing risk for a tornado with activity forming immediately
   along the stalled portion of the front, northeast of Amarillo, into
   areas south and east of Dodge City KS, however consolidating
   convective outflow with upscale growing convection may eventually
   support an eastward surge of the front across the Panhandle region,
   with strong surface gusts becoming the more prominent severe threat
   by this evening.

   Farther south, discrete supercell development is also ongoing along
   the dryline, and likely will persist well into the evening hours. 
   In the presence of strongly sheared, 40-50 kt south-southwesterly
   deep layer ambient mean flow, some of this activity will at least
   attempt to advect off the dryline.  If it as able to overcome
   inhibition and maintain intensity, potential for tornadoes probably
   will increase north and east of Lubbock, toward the Childress area,
   where low-level hodographs are already large and clockwise curved
   and forecast to enlarge through 00-02Z.

   ..Kerr.. 05/23/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35020256 36120179 37260072 37909962 37919791 37579747
               36349927 35619987 34410046 33180126 32740273 35020256 

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