Mesoscale Discussion 0758
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019
Areas affected...Texas South Plains/Panhandle into southwestern
Concerning...Tornado Watch 221...
Valid 232248Z - 240015Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 221 continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms likely will continue to increase in coverage
and intensity through 7-9 PM, accompanied by increasing severe
DISCUSSION...As a mid-level short wave trough gradually pivots north
northeastward through the central High Plains, an increase in
vigorous thunderstorm development is ongoing near/west through
northeast of Amarillo. This is being supported by inflow of
seasonably high boundary layer moisture content, which is
contributing to large CAPE in the presence of steep lower/mid
tropospheric lapse rates. These storms are focused along and just
to the cool side of a stalling or slow moving surface front, with
stronger cells, including supercells, likely capable of producing
severe hail into the evening hours. There probably is some
continuing risk for a tornado with activity forming immediately
along the stalled portion of the front, northeast of Amarillo, into
areas south and east of Dodge City KS, however consolidating
convective outflow with upscale growing convection may eventually
support an eastward surge of the front across the Panhandle region,
with strong surface gusts becoming the more prominent severe threat
by this evening.
Farther south, discrete supercell development is also ongoing along
the dryline, and likely will persist well into the evening hours.
In the presence of strongly sheared, 40-50 kt south-southwesterly
deep layer ambient mean flow, some of this activity will at least
attempt to advect off the dryline. If it as able to overcome
inhibition and maintain intensity, potential for tornadoes probably
will increase north and east of Lubbock, toward the Childress area,
where low-level hodographs are already large and clockwise curved
and forecast to enlarge through 00-02Z.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35020256 36120179 37260072 37909962 37919791 37579747
36349927 35619987 34410046 33180126 32740273 35020256