|Mesoscale Discussion 761|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019
Areas affected...Much of western through north central Kansas into
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220...
Valid 240007Z - 240130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220
SUMMARY...Scattered storms may pose a risk for severe hail into this
evening. At least some increase in potential for strong surface
gusts could develop near the Interstate 70 corridor of central
Kansas by 9-10 PM CDT. It is not certain that a new severe weather
watch will be needed into portions of southern Nebraska, but trends
will continue to be monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...Beneath broadly difluent mid/upper flow, strong
low-level warm advection (focused generally near 850 mb) continues
to support considerable scattered thunderstorm development across
western through north central Kansas and south central Nebraska.
This is occurring above seasonably cool to cold surface-based air to
the north of a stalled frontal zone, but a southerly return flow of
moisture above the front is contributing to weak to moderate
elevated instability, in the presence of strong cloud-bearing layer
shear. Stronger convection is generally remaining discrete in
nature as it develops northeastward and eastward toward southern
portions of the mid Missouri Valley. However, it appears possible
that a strengthening southerly 850 mb jet (30-40+ kt) could provide
the support and focus for upscale growing convection near the
Interstate 70 corridor of north central Kansas toward 02-03z.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38300153 39420092 40939906 41109619 39359660 38159866
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