Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 787
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 787 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0787
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1212 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico and west Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251712Z - 251915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are developing along the dryline in eastern NM/west
   TX with storm coverage increasing throughout the afternoon. Severe
   hail/wind are the main threats.

   DISCUSSION...Storms will continue to initiate along the dryline this
   afternoon with a moist airmass in place (60-70 F surface dewpoints)
   and strong insolation. Per water vapor imagery, a mid-level
   shortwave trough is also likely contributing to storm initiation
   along the dryline. Storms will be developing in a conducive severe
   environment characterized by 2000-3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-45
   knots of effective bulk shear. Large hail and damaging winds will be
   the primary threats given the high/strong CAPE/shear, although the
   tornado risk will increase this afternoon/evening as the LLJ
   strengthens and storms move into an environment with better
   low-level veering wind profiles.

   ..Nauslar/Hart.. 05/25/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32020288 32660227 33320195 34210193 35260197 36140210
               36470227 36570255 36150329 35160385 34020414 32860408
               32120381 32060358 32020288 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: January 01, 1970
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities