Mesoscale Discussion 0787
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1212 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico and west Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251712Z - 251915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are developing along the dryline in eastern NM/west
   TX with storm coverage increasing throughout the afternoon. Severe
   hail/wind are the main threats.

   DISCUSSION...Storms will continue to initiate along the dryline this
   afternoon with a moist airmass in place (60-70 F surface dewpoints)
   and strong insolation. Per water vapor imagery, a mid-level
   shortwave trough is also likely contributing to storm initiation
   along the dryline. Storms will be developing in a conducive severe
   environment characterized by 2000-3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-45
   knots of effective bulk shear. Large hail and damaging winds will be
   the primary threats given the high/strong CAPE/shear, although the
   tornado risk will increase this afternoon/evening as the LLJ
   strengthens and storms move into an environment with better
   low-level veering wind profiles.

   ..Nauslar/Hart.. 05/25/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32020288 32660227 33320195 34210193 35260197 36140210
               36470227 36570255 36150329 35160385 34020414 32860408
               32120381 32060358 32020288