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Mesoscale Discussion 789
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0789
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

   Areas affected...Far southeast Colorado and much of western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 251946Z - 252215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop and move into far southeast
   Colorado and much of western Kansas this afternoon and evening.
   Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threats and a watch
   issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...The Cu field is becoming more agitated in far southeast
   Colorado into the far western Oklahoma Panhandle. A surface front is
   draped southwest-northeast across western Kansas into northeast New
   Mexico. This front will be a focus for convection this
   afternoon/evening, although storms may form off the front in the
   warm sector with high-based storms to the west/north of the front
   also possible. A warm/moist/unstable airmass is in place with
   1500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPe along and east of the front in western
   Kansas. Given the instability and deep layer shear (40-60 knots of
   effective bulk shear), supercellular structures are likely, although
   it may grow quickly upscale into a multi-cellular cluster.

   ..Nauslar/Hart.. 05/25/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36950298 37440289 37960213 38670119 39160008 39279914
               38949874 38179851 37459852 36959853 36929896 36920035
               36940160 36950298 

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