|Mesoscale Discussion 789|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0789
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019
Areas affected...Far southeast Colorado and much of western Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 251946Z - 252215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop and move into far southeast
Colorado and much of western Kansas this afternoon and evening.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threats and a watch
issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...The Cu field is becoming more agitated in far southeast
Colorado into the far western Oklahoma Panhandle. A surface front is
draped southwest-northeast across western Kansas into northeast New
Mexico. This front will be a focus for convection this
afternoon/evening, although storms may form off the front in the
warm sector with high-based storms to the west/north of the front
also possible. A warm/moist/unstable airmass is in place with
1500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPe along and east of the front in western
Kansas. Given the instability and deep layer shear (40-60 knots of
effective bulk shear), supercellular structures are likely, although
it may grow quickly upscale into a multi-cellular cluster.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36950298 37440289 37960213 38670119 39160008 39279914
38949874 38179851 37459852 36959853 36929896 36920035
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