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Mesoscale Discussion 796
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0796
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0556 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwest
   Texas...western and central Oklahoma...southern Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 242...

   Valid 252256Z - 260100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 242 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues for Tornado Watch 0242, with
   convection translating eastward, towards the eastern bounds of the
   watch. As such, a WW issuance downstream may be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...Multicellular clusters and transient supercell
   structures alike, have begun to grow upscale into a more coherent
   MCS structure along the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border area. The
   atmosphere across southern Kansas into north Texas may be
   characterized by ample buoyancy (up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest
   deep-layer shear (bulk effective shear of around 40 knots), but weak
   low level shear. ICT, TLX, and FDR WSR-88D derived VAD-profiler
   data, and latest RAP forecast soundings all indicate relatively poor
   speed and directional shear in the lowest 3-km. The weak low-level
   shear will likely impede tornado potential to a degree for the
   remainder of Tornado Watch 0242. 

   While nocturnal strengthening of the low-level jet may boost
   low-level shear magnitudes to a degree, convection is expected to
   have organized into an MCS by then. As such, continued upscale
   linear growth, with damaging wind gusts (most likely with bowing
   segments and the most intense water loaded downdrafts) are expected
   to present the greatest severe weather threat across this area,
   though a few instances of large hail are possible. As the upscale
   growing convection translates eastward, a new WW may become
   necessary for areas east of Tornado Watch 0242.

   ..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/25/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32940157 37350099 37460022 37599904 37649748 37099674
               36169638 34929653 33579807 33149951 32940157 

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