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Mesoscale Discussion 799
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0799
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0649 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of far southeast Colorado into southwest

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241...

   Valid 252349Z - 260145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across portions of Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 0241, particularly with storms northwest and east
   of Dodge City, Kansas. By evening, boundary layer cooling and
   widespread convective overturning of the atmosphere will temper the
   severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...An arc of relatively disorganized multicellular
   convection, spanning from Finney County, to Edwards county in
   Kansas, continues to propagate northward, with newer cells
   developing ahead of the band in the Ness City, Kansas vicinity. With
   up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear noted
   across the area, any storm that can become sustained and
   uncontaminated by the outflow of neighboring storms will have the
   propensity to produce severe hail and damaging wind gusts.

   Overall convective intensity however, has trended downward within
   the past few hours, with an overall decrease in reflectivity and
   absence of severe hail/wind reports noted. Much of the airmass is
   already convectively overturned, and given that peak heating has
   already occurred, the threat for severe wind/hail is expected to be
   somewhat isolated for the remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   0241, with a continued downward trend in overall convective
   intensity expected.

   ..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/25/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36900274 38950274 39579878 37549877 36900274 

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