|Mesoscale Discussion 810|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0810
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019
Areas affected...portions of eastern CO...northeast NM...western KS
and the OK/TX Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 261719Z - 261915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat will steadily increase through early
afternoon across the central and southern High Plains. A tornado
watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Dewpoints have been increasing (around 2-4 degrees F in
the last 3 hours) with northward extent through the morning hours,
with mid 60s F dewpoint now as far north southwest KS and as far
west as the NM/TX border. A quasi-warm front/moisture gradient will
continue to lift northward across eastern CO and KS through the
afternoon and the dryline extending south/southwest across eastern
NM into far west TX will mix eastward toward the NM/TX border.
Further north, a station boundary arced northeastward from a low
over southeast CO into northwest KS and southern NE. This should
become the effective warm front later this afternoon as the lee
cyclone strengthens and moisture continue to surge northward amidst
pockets of stronger insolation in broken cloudiness across the
Latest water vapor imagery indicates increasing ascent is now moving
into the southern Rockies vicinity as some weak midlevel convection
has developed in the vicinity of the dryline from southeast NM into
southeast CO. 17z mesoanalysis indicates SBCAPE as high as 3000-4000
J/kg from northeast NM into southwest KS with only weak inhibition.
However, midlevel capping will require additional heating and the
early convection is not expected to pose a threat in the short term.
By around 19-20z, convective initiation is expected in the vicinity
of the triple point and southward along the dryline.
Forecast soundings show somewhat modest low level shear initially,
with more long/straight hodographs, which would favor supercells
capable of very large hail. As the lee cyclone deepens, larger
curved hodographs develop, leading to an increasing tornado threat
from late afternoon into early evening. Very steep lapse rates will
and strong vertical shear will continue to support a threat for
large hail into tonight. As storms shift east off of the dryline,
some upscale growth into bowing segments is expected, with an
increase in damaging wind potential as this transition occurs. With
convective initiation anticipated by 20z, a tornado watch will
likely be need in the next 1-2 hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34240404 36600390 38680331 39520274 39920203 39990119
39680025 39059990 37550002 35390094 34320154 33940222
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