Mesoscale Discussion 0810
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1219 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

   Areas affected...portions of eastern CO...northeast NM...western KS
   and the OK/TX Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 261719Z - 261915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will steadily increase through early
   afternoon across the central and southern High Plains. A tornado
   watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Dewpoints have been increasing (around 2-4 degrees F in
   the last 3 hours) with northward extent through the morning hours,
   with mid 60s F dewpoint now as far north southwest KS and as far
   west as the NM/TX border. A quasi-warm front/moisture gradient will
   continue to lift northward across eastern CO and KS through the
   afternoon and the dryline extending south/southwest across eastern
   NM into far  west TX will mix eastward toward the NM/TX border.
   Further north, a station boundary arced northeastward from a low
   over southeast CO into northwest KS and southern NE.  This should
   become the effective warm front later this afternoon as the lee
   cyclone strengthens and moisture continue to surge northward amidst
   pockets of stronger insolation in broken cloudiness across the
   region. 

   Latest water vapor imagery indicates increasing ascent is now moving
   into the southern Rockies vicinity as some weak midlevel convection
   has developed in the vicinity of the dryline from southeast NM into
   southeast CO. 17z mesoanalysis indicates SBCAPE as high as 3000-4000
   J/kg from northeast NM into southwest KS with only weak inhibition.
   However, midlevel capping will require additional heating and the
   early convection is not expected to pose a threat in the short term.
   By around 19-20z, convective initiation is expected in the vicinity
   of the triple point and southward along the dryline. 

   Forecast soundings show somewhat modest low level shear initially,
   with more long/straight hodographs, which would favor supercells
   capable of very large hail. As the lee cyclone deepens, larger
   curved hodographs develop, leading to an increasing tornado threat
   from late afternoon into early evening. Very steep lapse rates will
   and strong vertical shear will continue to support a threat for
   large hail into tonight. As storms shift east off of the dryline,
   some upscale growth into bowing segments is expected, with an
   increase in damaging wind potential as this transition occurs. With
   convective initiation anticipated by 20z, a tornado watch will
   likely be need in the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/26/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34240404 36600390 38680331 39520274 39920203 39990119
               39680025 39059990 37550002 35390094 34320154 33940222
               33880353 34240404