|Mesoscale Discussion 815|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0815
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019
Areas affected...eastern CO...extreme southwest NE...western
KS...portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and northeast NM
Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...254...
Valid 262043Z - 262215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253, 254 continues.
SUMMARY...Additional storms are expected to develop to the west of
current convection along the CO/KS border by 22z. These storms will
shift eastward across WW 253 and WW 254 through 03z with hail,
tornadoes and damaging winds possible.
DISCUSSION...Cloud cover has persisted across much of the region
today, inhibiting more organized and robust convection due to
capping and weaker insolation than forecast. Latest hi-res guidance
appears to have finally caught on to ongoing evolution of storms
across eastern CO/western KS into the TX Panhandle. Stronger ascent
is starting to overspread the region as is evident in thunderstorm
development across western and central NM and deeper cumulus noted
in visible satellite along and just ahead of the dryline across
eastern NM. Where skies have cleared across parts of eastern CO
into eastern NM, temperatures have quickly warmed into the upper 70s
to around 80 F. Current thinking is that additional storms will
develop along the dryline from south east CO into eastern NM and
shift eastward across the ongoing tornado watches. With strong
forcing roughly parallel to the surface boundary, convection may
struggle to remain discrete and could quickly grow upscale into
bowing segments. While this may temper the tornado threat compared
to more discrete modes, low level shear will remain more than
sufficient for rotating supercells embedded within lines and/or
mesovortex generation within surging bowing segments and overall
tornado threat will remain.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37080050 34710217 34350524 35590574 37030521 38990401
40430277 40450256 40350022 39989962 39569959 39479959
39389959 39129961 37080050
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