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Mesoscale Discussion 821 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0821
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019
Areas affected...northeast NM...northwest TX Panhandle...western OK
Panhandle...southeast CO...southwest KS
Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...254...
Valid 262304Z - 270030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253, 254 continues.
SUMMARY...It appears the risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) is
increasing substantially as a squall line over the south-central
High Plains intensifies as it moves east into richer low-level
moisture.
DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a vigorous mid-level
shortwave trough over central NM and it is forecast to move rapidly
northeast towards the Raton Mesa during the evening hours. Strong
mid- to upper-level forcing for ascent coupled with a moisture-rich
boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the middle 60s) will promote
additional cold pool coalescing as the squall line over northeast NM
into southeast CO continues to intensify. Confidence is relatively
high for severe gusts (60-75 mph) to become scattered to widespread
as the squall line moves to the northeast into adjacent portions of
the TX/OK Panhandles and near the KS/CO border during the next few
hours.
..Smith.. 05/26/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 38010311 38450258 38710155 38410089 36490151 35400258
35250371 38010311
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