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Mesoscale Discussion 823
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0823
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

   Areas affected...OK-TX Panhandles...TX South Plains...Eastern Plains
   of NM

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...254...

   Valid 262356Z - 270100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253, 254 continues.

   SUMMARY...Significant severe gust potential is increasing over the
   southern High Plains.  Widespread gusts of 60-70 mph are likely, and
   70-90 mph gusts are possible in swaths where embedded supercells or
   bowing segments evolve within the squall line.  A new severe
   thunderstorm watch will likely be issued this evening for central
   and eastern portions of the TX Panhandle and areas near and east of
   I-27.  A watch extension in area could be utilized over parts of
   southwest KS south of severe thunderstorm watch 257.

   DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows an intense mid-level
   shortwave trough moving rapidly northeastward across central NM with
   a 100 kt 300mb jet streak analyzed over far southeast NM.  Strong
   mid- to upper-level forcing for ascent is beginning to overspread
   the west edge of the moist sector.  A concentrated area of severe
   gusts ranging from 50-70kt have been observed by ASOS over
   north-central NM and south-central CO (Clines Corners, NM to
   Alamosa, CO) with high-based convection.  The flow fields associated
   with the gusts are overspreading the dryline this evening.

   The 19z Amarillo, TX raob showed a 8.8 degrees C/km 700-500mb lapse
   rate atop a moist/unstable boundary layer approaching 2000 J/kg
   MLCAPE.  Surface analysis during the past hour indicates relatively
   strong pressure falls (1-2mb/hour) from the Permian Basin northward
   into southeast CO.  Coincident with the pressure falls, the KAMA VAD
   has strengthened markedly during the past hour.  The expectation
   this evening is for a narrow window of opportunity for a supercell
   tornado risk ahead of the severe squall line.  As the supercells
   become embedded within the line, those areas will likely evolve into
   bowing structures with deep updraft cores lingering for an hour or
   more thereafter.  It is with these structures and other bowing
   structures where the potential for significant severe gusts is

   ..Smith.. 05/26/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33720327 34040361 36920279 37400194 37400096 36980068
               34050149 33640189 33610273 33720327 

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