|Mesoscale Discussion 824|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0824
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0850 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019
Areas affected...western KS...far southwest NE...far eastern CO
Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...
Valid 270150Z - 270245Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado watch 253 expires at 03z. A new severe
thunderstorm watch may be needed over western KS to address a
lingering severe risk through the late evening and beyond the
existing watch's expiration time (03z). Probability of a new severe
thunderstorm watch issuance -- 50 percent.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broken squall line from the
CO/KS/OK border northward along the KS/CO border. Surface
observations indicate an outflow boundary is draped west-east south
of I-70. The 00z Dodge City raob showed a strong wind profile with
speed shear in the lowest few km, but considerable convective
overturning via earlier day thunderstorm activity has led to
weaknesses in moisture quality and in the lapse rate profile.
Current thinking is a continued risk for large hail may accompany
the stronger cores north of the outflow boundary near the KS/NE
border over the next 2 hours. Surface observations indicate a
narrow plume of instability is enabling some recovery over southwest
KS ahead of the squall line where dewpoints in the OK Panhandle via
the OK Mesonet show middle 60s degrees F. Therefore a risk for
severe gusts appears greatest across southwest KS over the next
several hours in association with the eastward-moving squall line.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37050233 39740261 40190079 39919965 38360006 37110078
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