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Mesoscale Discussion 824
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0824
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0850 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

   Areas affected...western KS...far southwest NE...far eastern CO

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...

   Valid 270150Z - 270245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado watch 253 expires at 03z.  A new severe
   thunderstorm watch may be needed over western KS to address a
   lingering severe risk through the late evening and beyond the
   existing watch's expiration time (03z).  Probability of a new severe
   thunderstorm watch issuance -- 50 percent.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broken squall line from the
   CO/KS/OK border northward along the KS/CO border.  Surface
   observations indicate an outflow boundary is draped west-east south
   of I-70.  The 00z Dodge City raob showed a strong wind profile with
   speed shear in the lowest few km, but considerable convective
   overturning via earlier day thunderstorm activity has led to
   weaknesses in moisture quality and in the lapse rate profile.

   Current thinking is a continued risk for large hail may accompany
   the stronger cores north of the outflow boundary near the KS/NE
   border over the next 2 hours.  Surface observations indicate a
   narrow plume of instability is enabling some recovery over southwest
   KS ahead of the squall line where dewpoints in the OK Panhandle via
   the OK Mesonet show middle 60s degrees F.  Therefore a risk for
   severe gusts appears greatest across southwest KS over the next
   several hours in association with the eastward-moving squall line.

   ..Smith.. 05/27/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37050233 39740261 40190079 39919965 38360006 37110078

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