Mesoscale Discussion 0825
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0853 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of central and northern Kansas into
   southeast Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257...

   Valid 270153Z - 270400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat continues, mainly with organized
   storm clusters in south-central Nebraska and central Kansas. As
   boundary layer stabilization sets in, an overall decrease in the
   severe threat is anticipated, and a downstream WW issuance is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...A small MCV is currently traversing the south-central
   Nebraska region, with a multicellular cluster located across
   Barton/Ellsworth Counties in Kansas. Both convective complexes have
   only produced sparse severe over the past couple of hours. In
   addition, both complexes are beginning to outrun the favorable
   instability axis, with MLCAPE decreasing below 1000 J/kg downstream
   of the aforementioned clusters (per TOP/OAX 00Z observed soundings).
   Modest effective bulk shear values of around 40 knots and over 200
   m2/s2 of effective SRH suggest that a few storms (especially those
   associated with the southern Nebraska MCV) may produce an isolated
   severe hail/wind gust or two and perhaps a brief tornado in the near
   term. Otherwise, the overall severe threat is expected to gradually
   decrease with time.

   ..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/27/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38079867 38559881 40339891 40849878 40909817 40889745
               40819640 40669608 40029593 39309609 38499653 38099771
               38079867