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Mesoscale Discussion 864
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0864
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0533 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

   Areas affected...Central Kansas and Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 276...279...

   Valid 282233Z - 290000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 276, 279 continues.

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe storms may pose a risk for large
   to very large hail across and east of the Interstate 35 corridor
   into early evening.  At least some increase in potential for
   tornadoes may develop toward 7-8 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Locally enhanced convergence along the dryline, near
   its intersection with the warm front to the southwest of Concordia
   KS, southward near/west of the Interstate 35 corridor of Oklahoma,
   is supporting widely scattered intense thunderstorm development. 
   This is being aided by lift of boundary layer air characterized by
   large CAPE (3000-4000 J/kg), in the presence of strongly sheared,
   40+ kt southwesterly deep layer ambient mean flow.

   Within this regime, including weakening inhibition with the onset of
   mid-level cooling, cells will tend to advect northeastward off the
   dryline during the next few hours, with a tendency to propagate
   eastward as they continue to intensify.  Low-level hodographs are
   initially somewhat modest, but some strengthening of
   south-southwesterly 850 mb flow toward sunset may contribute to
   enlarging low-level hodographs, and at least some risk for tornadoes
   east of the Interstate 35 corridor.

   Otherwise, strongest storms will pose a risk for large to very large
   hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 05/28/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...

   LAT...LON   39339879 39599752 39219612 36379659 34819767 34239841
               34199901 35389845 36389801 37719770 38149763 39339879 

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