Mesoscale Discussion 0864
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019
Areas affected...Central Kansas and Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado Watch 276...279...
Valid 282233Z - 290000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 276, 279 continues.
SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe storms may pose a risk for large
to very large hail across and east of the Interstate 35 corridor
into early evening. At least some increase in potential for
tornadoes may develop toward 7-8 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...Locally enhanced convergence along the dryline, near
its intersection with the warm front to the southwest of Concordia
KS, southward near/west of the Interstate 35 corridor of Oklahoma,
is supporting widely scattered intense thunderstorm development.
This is being aided by lift of boundary layer air characterized by
large CAPE (3000-4000 J/kg), in the presence of strongly sheared,
40+ kt southwesterly deep layer ambient mean flow.
Within this regime, including weakening inhibition with the onset of
mid-level cooling, cells will tend to advect northeastward off the
dryline during the next few hours, with a tendency to propagate
eastward as they continue to intensify. Low-level hodographs are
initially somewhat modest, but some strengthening of
south-southwesterly 850 mb flow toward sunset may contribute to
enlarging low-level hodographs, and at least some risk for tornadoes
east of the Interstate 35 corridor.
Otherwise, strongest storms will pose a risk for large to very large
hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr.. 05/28/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...
LAT...LON 39339879 39599752 39219612 36379659 34819767 34239841
34199901 35389845 36389801 37719770 38149763 39339879
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