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Mesoscale Discussion 1053
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1053
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico and West Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 131904Z - 132130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop this afternoon
   across eastern New Mexico and west Texas. Isolated large hail and
   wind damage are expected to be the primary threats. Weather watch
   issuance may be needed over the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a lee trough across
   eastern New Mexico. An axis of maximized low-level moisture is
   present along the trough with surface dewpoints generally the 50s F.
   In response, moderate instability has developed across eastern New
   Mexico where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE values in the 1000 to 1500
   J/kg range. As low-level convergence increases along the surface
   trough over the next hour or two, convective initiation is expected.
   Convection should develop near the instability axis along the
   eastern edge of the Sacramento and Sangre De Cristo mountains. This
   activity will develop into thunderstorms and spread
   east-southeastward toward the New Mexico-Texas state-line late this
   afternoon. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings show
   0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 kt range owing mostly to directional
   shear in the low to mid-levels. This will be sufficient for isolated
   supercell development. Initially, large hail will be the primary
   threat. However, as the cell updrafts mature, a few damaging wind
   gusts will also be possible.

   ..Broyles/Thompson.. 06/13/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   33480290 34680248 35540236 36270259 36630298 36790358
               36650419 36060459 35050511 34620523 33790544 32810543
               32400499 32340448 32610369 33480290 

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