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Mesoscale Discussion 1061
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1061
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0144 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Western Kansas...Southwestern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141844Z - 142115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of
   northern and eastern Colorado into western Kansas this afternoon.
   Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible with the
   stronger thunderstorms. Weather watch issuance may be needed across
   the region over the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1003 mb low over
   southeast Colorado with a mesoscale surface trough extending
   northwest into central Colorado. A cold front is moving
   southeastward across eastern Colorado with surface dewpoints along
   and behind the front generally in the lower to mid 40s F. Steep
   lapse rates are present over the relatively dry airmass with SBCAPE
   values estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg by the RAP.

   Thunderstorms are currently developing in the higher terrain from
   west of Denver southeastward to the Palmer Divide. This convection
   will move east-southeastward into the High Plains late this
   afternoon where forecast soundings show 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40
   kt range. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will be
   sufficient for a severe threat with hail and strong gusty winds
   possible. As the storms move eastward into far eastern Colorado,
   where moderate instability will be in place, a more substantial
   severe threat is likely. The environment should support supercells
   with isolated large hail and wind damage late this afternoon.

   ..Broyles/Kerr.. 06/14/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41180382 40360555 39780580 39020502 37940408 37050384
               36670330 36780217 37710132 39730098 40800209 41180382 

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