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Mesoscale Discussion 1080
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1080
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0713 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

   Areas affected...Texas Panhandle and Northern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...

   Valid 160013Z - 160145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in intensity/coverage the
   next 1-2 hours, posing a threat for large hail and damaging wind

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a few clusters of storms have
   developed across the Texas Panhandle, with large hail of 1-2 inches
   in diameter being reported. As this ongoing activity spreads
   eastward it will encounter a more favorable thermodynamic
   environment across the eastern Texas Panhandle and southwest
   Oklahoma, where surface dew point temperatures are in the upper 60s
   to low 70 F and MLCAPE values are approaching 3500-4000 J/kg. Large
   hail will remain possible with these storms, and with time, a
   damaging wind threat may emerge if storms can continue to organize
   and grow upscale.

   Farther east, visible satellite trends show an increase in vertical
   development within the boundary-layer cumulus field across northwest
   Oklahoma and into north-central/northeast, with weak reflectivity
   echos showing up on radar. This development appears focused along an
   inverted trough/weak cold front, where low-level moisture
   convergence is maximized and surface dew point temperatures are in
   the low 70s F. 

   The thermodynamic environment in this region is quite supportive of
   rigorous thunderstorm development the next 1-2 hours, with MLCAPE of
   4000-4500 J/kg little appreciable MLCIN. Steep low and mid-level
   lapse rates (8-9 C/km) will support a threat for damaging wind gusts
   along with large hail. Deep-layer shear remains somewhat marginal at
   this time (20-25 kt effective bulk shear), although forecast RAP
   soundings indicate perhaps some increase (approaching 30-35 kt) may
   occur through the evening. With time, storms here may organize into
   a multicellular cluster, as supported by the latest
   convection-allowing guidance.

   ..Karstens.. 06/16/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33029919 32549998 32910106 34090172 35100194 35820102
               36529910 36879775 36859663 36409528 35579521 35179772
               34679900 33029919 

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