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Mesoscale Discussion 1081
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1081
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0806 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

   Areas affected...Central/Northeast Oklahoma...Southeast
   Kansas...Northeast Arkansas...and Southwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 160106Z - 160300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms expected to continue to develop and/or move into
   the region throughout the evening, posing a threat for large
   hail/damaging wind gusts. One or more watches will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite/radar trends show a few storms
   are developing across northeast Oklahoma. Thus far, storms have
   remained somewhat disorganized, likely due to marginal deep-layer
   shear across the region. However, these storms are developing within
   an environment characterized by large instability (MLCAPE of
   3000-4000 J/kg), and thus, storms should continue to intensify over
   the next 1-2 hours. In addition, forecast soundings from the
   RAP/HRRR indicate an increase in low-level southerly flow as a
   low-level jet develops through the late evening. This process should
   result in an uptick in deep-layer shear and promote additional
   thunderstorm development/maintenance across the region. 

   Thus, ongoing storms in northeast Oklahoma are expected to continue
   intensifying over the next 1-2 hours, eventually organizing into
   perhaps a few multi-cellular clusters that would pose a threat for
   large hail and damaging wind gusts. Additional ongoing activity
   across parts of northwest/western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle
   should eventually propagate eastward and move into the region,
   particularly across parts of central Oklahoma. Given these forecast
   scenarios, one or more watches may be needed for parts of the

   ..Karstens/Guyer.. 06/16/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34419635 34269804 35329822 37259575 37769372 36439322

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