Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1176
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1176 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1176
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 211756Z - 211930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Easterly upslope flow/moisture advection and diabatic
   heating contributing to destabilization. A watch may be needed in
   the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Regional surface observations show continued moistening
   of the boundary layer along and east of the Front Range due in large
   part to low-level easterly upslope flow. Currently, dew point
   temperatures are in the mid to upper 40s F in proximity to the
   Denver Metro area. Despite meager instability currently (MLCAPE
   400-500 J/kg), low-level flow trajectories suggest a continuation
   moistening/destabilization throughout the afternoon, with dew points
   in the 50s to near 60 F residing in eastern/southeastern Colorado.
   Consequently, diabatic heating has lead to the development of a band
   of cumulus in this region.

   As the aforementioned processes continue to unfold, a few storms
   should develop along the Front Range, particularly over the high
   terrain areas, and propagate eastward with time. Forecast soundings
   from the RAP/HRRR indicate pronounced deep-layer shear (50-60 kt
   effective shear), given enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level 50+ kt
   flow and turning of the winds with height. Convection should
   organize into multicellular/supercellular structures and
   progressively intensify as they encounter richer boundary-layer
   moisture to the east. Forecast soundings also show steep low-level
   lapse rates (7-8 C/km) indicating the potential for strong/gusty
   outflow winds, along with a severe hail threat. A watch may be
   needed in the next 1-2 hours in anticipation of these convective

   ..Karstens/Hart.. 06/21/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39240503 39960527 40270502 40030363 39720322 39240327
               38280379 38210466 38570496 39240503 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: January 01, 1970
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities