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Mesoscale Discussion 1181
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MD 1181 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1181
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0520 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 212220Z - 212345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across eastern Colorado in
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0417. Large hail and damaging wind gusts
   appear to be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two are
   also possible. The threat looks to continue downstream of the
   current watch and a new WW issuance will probably be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...A lone supercell is in progress across eastern Elbert
   County, CO and is moving into Lincoln County as it traverses a
   quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. This storm has a history of
   producing severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Occasional transient
   low-level rotation has also been noted with this storms. Downstream
   of the supercell, the ambient atmosphere is characterized by
   moderate instability (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer
   shear (effective bulk shear values exceeding 50 knots). Locally
   enhanced streamwise vorticity may also be concentrated along the
   aforementioned baroclinic zone, which may promote additional bouts
   of transient low-level rotation and perhaps support a brief tornado
   or two. As such, continued forward propagation of this supercell is
   expected downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0417 into far
   eastern Colorado and western Kansas, where a WW issuance may be
   needed soon.

   ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 06/21/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39510504 39570376 39500244 39610105 39130061 38640082
               38270191 38460344 38590510 39510504 

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