Mesoscale Discussion 1188
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0940 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019
Areas affected...Eastern Colorado into far western Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 420...
Valid 220240Z - 220415Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 420
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across portions of eastern
Colorado into western Kansas. Large hail and damaging winds will be
the primary threat. The severe threat may continue for at least a
few more hours.
DISCUSSION...Small-scale bowing segments and discrete, elevated
supercells remain in progress across portions of northeast CO into
far west KS, with relatively newer storm development noted over the
past two hours in El Paso and Crowley counties in CO. Based on the
latest RAP forecast soundings, these storms are likely rooted within
the 800-700 mb layer. Despite the elevated nature of these storms,
steep lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) within the 700-500 mb layer will
foster large hail growth with the more mature, sustained storms. In
addition, the heavier cores may be associated with downbursts, where
severe wind gusts remain a possibility.
The severe threat may continue for a few more hours, until
widespread convective overturning diminishes favorable lapse rates
atop a further stabilizing/decoupling boundary layer.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38070389 38460444 39020452 39610355 39670265 39430168
39200114 38560099 38210202 38150295 38070389