ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 221858 
SPC MCD 221858 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-222100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Areas affected...Central/Eastern Kansas...North-Central/West
Oklahoma...Northern Texas Panhandle...far Southeast Nebraska...and
Western/Northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 221858Z - 222100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Widespread convective development expected this afternoon,
with large hail/damaging wind gusts the primary threats. Watch
likely.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a northward advancing area of
developing cumulus, associated with low-level moisture advection,
over southern/southeastern Kansas into far west-central Missouri,
beneath a broken layer of northeastward streaming mid-level cloud
cover. Some vertical development in the low-level clouds can be
noted along the stalled frontal boundary oriented from northwest
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle into northeast Kansas, particularly near an
analyzed meso-low over central Kansas, and along the edge of a
modified cold pool from an overnight/morning MCS, stretching from
west-central to far southern Missouri. Surface temperatures have
warmed into the upper 80s F within the warm sector, where dew point
temperatures are in the low to mid 70s F. Consequently, the
atmosphere is undergoing rapid destabilization, where MLCAPE values
are now exceeding 3000 J/kg.

As the area continues to destabilize, widespread convective
development is anticipated over the region within the next few
hours, particularly along the aforementioned baroclinic zones
initially. Effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt is common across the
region (lessening with southward extent), and should help to
organize the convection into multicellular/supercellular structures
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Watch issuance can be
expected soon.

..Karstens/Hart.. 06/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...
DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   35419881 35330000 36110044 37079920 38379895 39669802
            40369582 40239421 38889326 37849268 37619569 35889782
            35419881 

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