Mesoscale Discussion 1312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019
Areas affected...southern Minnesota...much of western Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465...
Valid 301249Z - 301445Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465
SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe wind gusts remain possible,
mainly east of the Mississippi river in the near term.
DISCUSSION...An MCS continues to surge southward across northwest WI
and east-central MN, riding along the instability gradient and in a
zone of modest low-level warm air advection. The strongest outflow
push is over western WI, just on the eastern edge of the stronger
instability. The 12Z MPX sounding shows impressively steep lapse
rates, effectively no cap, and modest westerly winds through a deep
layer. Therefore, little heating will be needed to erode CIN over
southern WI, IA, and northern IL today, and this should support a
continued wind threat with the MCS. Additional watch area may be
needed south or east of WW 465 later this morning.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 45529306 45219255 45119203 45149147 45369101 45749079
44688970 44008943 43518949 43158983 43089055 43409133
44219219 44519278 44789320 45249342 45469340 45529306