Mesoscale Discussion 1521
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern MT...far northeastern
   WY...far southwestern ND...and northwestern SD

   Concerning...01Z Outlook upgrade 

   Valid 190626Z - 190900Z

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk should continue overnight. Large hail
   appears to be the main threat. Overall threat will probably remain
   too isolated for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have recently strengthened across far
   southeastern MT into far southwestern ND along and just ahead of a
   cold front. Ascent overspreading this region associated with a
   subtle shortwave trough embedded within enhanced mid/upper-level
   westerly flow may also be aiding storm development. This convection
   will likely remain elevated above a shallow near-surface stable
   layer. But, steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to
   1500-2500+ MUCAPE, which increases with eastward extent across
   western SD. Strong mid/upper-level winds will support elevated
   supercells early this morning with mainly a large hail threat given
   the 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear. This threat for isolated large
   hail will probably persist for the next couple of hours into parts
   of far southwestern ND and northwestern SD. At least a marginal risk
   of severe storms is apparent, but the overall threat will probably
   remain too isolated to justify watch issuance.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 07/19/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   45130531 45660492 46260364 46370291 46330179 45930090
               45010089 44470157 44170262 44180404 44510499 45130531