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Mesoscale Discussion 1650
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1650
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0108 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2019

   Areas affected...eastern Missouri and into southern
   Illinois...southwestern Indiana...and western Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 061808Z - 062015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage over
   the next 1-2 hours over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley
   area, along with an associated increase in severe potential.  A
   watch will likely be required.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows an increase in
   cu/cb across parts of eastern Missouri, northwest of the St. Louis
   area.  The increase is occurring near a very weak/subtle frontal
   wave, associated with a mid-level disturbance moving southeastward
   across northwestern Missouri.  

   With a very moist airmass undergoing continued heating/
   destabilization (mixed-layer CAPE now exceeding 2500 to 3000 J/kg
   across much of the discussion area), an increase in convective
   development is expected to continue -- resulting in eventual
   strong/locally severe storm development.  

   The latest LSX (St. Louis) WSR-88D VWP shows low-level flow veering
   to northwesterly in the lowest 1km, and then a roughly
   unidirectional northwesterly profile that increases in speed with
   height.  This kinematic environment supports organized,
   southeastward-moving storms, with upscale growth into sustained
   storm clusters expected.  Locally damaging wind gusts will likely be
   the primary risk, though hail is also possible.  Given the
   expected/gradual increase in severe potential, a WW will likely be
   required in the next hour or so.

   ..Goss/Dial.. 08/06/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39169132 39279082 39048936 38958805 38178753 37158773
               36678865 36718970 37989101 39169132 

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Page last modified: August 06, 2019
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