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Mesoscale Discussion 1741
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1741
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019

   Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...southwest South Dakota and
   northwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 150456Z - 150630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may continue to pose a risk for large hail and
   locally strong to damaging gusts into the early morning hours.
   Trends are being monitored for a possible WW.

   DISCUSSION...Severe storms continue over northeast WY and western
   SD. Several CAM solutions maintain storms into the morning hours
   from southwest SD into western NE. The strongest forcing for ascent
   appears to remain in MT in association with a progressive shortwave
   trough. The surface layer has stabilized, but convective inhibition
   for parcels lifted from above the surface remains relatively weak.
   While larger-scale forcing appears rather nebulous and subtle, trend
   has been for storms to increase in coverage, and activity may
   continue southeast along the instability gradient. MUCAPE from
   1500-2000 J/kg with 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and effective
   shear from 40-45 kt is sufficient for updraft rotation and a threat
   for large hail.

   ..Dial/Goss.. 08/15/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43490476 44080466 44200274 43260196 42100185 41690337
               42760423 43490476 

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