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Mesoscale Discussion 1748
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MD 1748 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1748
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

   Areas affected...portions of central and eastern KS into far western

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 152051Z - 152245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are expected to develop over the
   next few hours. These storms could produce very large hail, damaging
   winds, and possibly a couple of tornadoes. A watch will be needed in
   the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated convection continues this afternoon across far
   southeast NE into northwest MO. These storms could pose a persistent
   hail threat over the next several hours. An outflow boundary
   associated with this convection is oriented roughly west to east
   from near CNK in north-central KS to near Kansas City. Strong
   heating to the south of this boundary has resulted in around 20-30
   degrees temperatures difference across the boundary, with mid 80s to
   near 90 degrees south and mid 60s to mid 70s north. Surface
   dewpoints south of the boundary ranged from the upper 60s to low
   70s, resulting in 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and rapidly eroding
   inhibition. Evidence of the weakening EML has been noted over the
   last 30 minutes or so in GOES-16 1-minute visible imagery as the CU
   field in the vicinity of the outflow boundary has showing increasing
   vertical development. 

   As warm advection increases and a low level jet begins to strengthen
   early this evening, convection is expected to develop near the
   outflow boundary by 00z. Weak upper forcing will likely allow
   discrete cells to persist initially before upscale growth become
   more likely with the increasing south/southwesterly low level jet
   between 00-03z. Effective shear greater than 40 kt and very steep
   midlevel lapse rates will support supercells capable of very large
   hail (some baseball or larger). Damaging wind gusts (some greater
   than 65 kt) also appears likely given steep low level lapse rates
   and midlevel dryness enhancing evaporative processing leading to
   intense downdrafts.  Somewhat more uncertain is tornado potential.
   Backed low level flow in the vicinity of the outflow boundary will
   enhanced 0-3 km SRH values. However, aforementioned downdraft
   potential could be a mitigating factor in overall tornado potential.
   Nevertheless, overall environmental parameters support at least some
   tornado threat with any cells that remain discrete. A watch will
   likely be needed for portions of the MCD area by 23z.

   ..Leitman/Grams.. 08/15/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37139517 37039599 37049687 37199770 37779863 38459895
               38929893 39549872 39709849 39799751 39799601 39689548
               39309455 39109429 38709410 38169419 37449447 37139517 

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