ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 250940 SPC MCD 250940 OKZ000-KSZ000-251045- Mesoscale Discussion 1855 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Areas affected...Portions of south-central/southeastern KS into northern OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618... Valid 250940Z - 251045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618 continues. SUMMARY...Storms across southeastern Kansas may continue to produce isolated strong/gusty winds, but the overall severe threat should continue to lessen into northeastern OK. Across south-central KS, at least an isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts remains. Downstream watch issuance into parts of north-central Oklahoma is possible, but does not appear immediately likely. DISCUSSION...Leading line of storms across southeastern KS continues to show limited intensity per recent radar and infrared satellite imagery. This convection is moving southeastward and away from a south-southwesterly low-level jet over parts of the southern/central Plains. Given current radar trends, additional watch issuance into northeastern OK appears unlikely at this time. Across south-central KS, a string of supercells elevated above outflow from the storms now over southeastern KS are being supported by a 35-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet per KDDC VWP. These winds veer to northwesterly and strengthen to around 50-60 kt at mid/upper levels, which should continue to support updraft organization and an isolated threat for large hail. Some clustering of storms has also occurred across this region, with a wind gust of 42 kt measured at KPTT (Pratt KS) at 0915Z. Still, the outflow from earlier storms may tend to limit a greater wind threat in the short term. The overall severe threat into north-central OK remains unclear. Outflow from a separate, sub-severe cluster of storms that has moved from northwestern into central OK over the past few hours may tend to limit the wind threat with southward extent. Still, at least an isolated hail and strong/gusty wind risk may continue into a small portion of north-central OK where the airmass was not convectively overturned. While watch issuance is not immediately likely across north-central OK, trends will be closely monitored. ..Gleason.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38599951 38599890 37349786 37369741 37619661 38109621 38139593 37039559 36439628 36389753 36419868 36619930 37009953 38599951 NNNN