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Mesoscale Discussion 2183
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2183
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of the Upper Peninsula of MI and
   northern/central Lower MI

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 010736Z - 011330Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow will continue across the U.P. of Michigan early
   this morning. Rates of 1-2 inches per hour are likely for at least
   the next few hours. Across northern/central Lower Michigan, freezing
   rain will transition to sleet and then heavy snow through 14Z (9 AM
   EST). Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour or greater may occur.

   DISCUSSION...A pronounced upper low over IA will continue eastward
   across the Midwest early this morning. Robust large-scale ascent
   associated with the exit region of a mid/upper-level jet will
   likewise shift eastward across the upper Great Lakes region over the
   next several hours. A snow band oriented generally east-west across
   the U.P. of MI should persist for at least the next few hours, with
   snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour likely as some lake
   enhancement occurs given the east-northeasterly fetch off of Lake

   Across northern Lower MI, a couple of 07Z surface observations show
   light freezing rain occurring. This is due to an elevated warm nose
   centered around 850-700 mb per RAP forecast soundings. This
   low-level inversion is forecast to gradually erode from west to east
   across Lower MI over the next few hours as temperatures aloft cool
   with the approach of the upper low. A transition from light freezing
   rain to sleet, and eventually snow is expected. Strong lift will
   occur through the depth of the dendritic growth zone, and snowfall
   rates of 1 inch per hour or greater appear likely across parts of
   northern/central Lower MI by 11-12Z (6-7 AM EST) and after.

   ..Gleason.. 12/01/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45668781 46288890 46608879 46978827 46878756 46688734
               46568689 46618646 46768598 46388526 45808440 45568403
               45358354 45098329 44738331 44378334 43898385 43218467
               43098523 43278605 43518652 43858661 44918729 45668781 

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