Mesoscale Discussion 0003
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0102 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2020

   Areas affected...southwest through central Georgia into central
   South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031902Z - 032100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will pose at least some risk for isolated
   strong to damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two
   this afternoon. A WW will probably not be needed unless convective
   trends begin to dictate otherwise.

   DISCUSSION...A modest increase in intensity and organization has
   occurred during the past hour with storms developing along cold
   front and in warm sector from southwest through central GA. Breaks
   in clouds have promoted diabatic warming of the moist boundary layer
   with temperatures rising to around 80 F, but instability remains
   marginal with MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg due to very weak mid-level
   lapse rates. There has also been some tendency for low-level winds
   to veer slightly to south southwesterly with time. Nevertheless, 0-1
   km hodographs with storm relative helicity from 200-250 m2/s2 and 50
   kt effective bulk shear are supportive of supercell structures,
   along with some bowing segments. Isolated damaging wind and a brief
   tornado or two will be possible in this environment this afternoon.

   ..Dial/Goss.. 01/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31438521 32458454 33788250 34548053 33788069 30988370
               31438521