Mesoscale Discussion 0009
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0630 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

   Areas affected...Western OK...Far South-Central KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101230Z - 101330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail
   may develop across western OK and far south-central KS during the
   next few hours. Trends will be monitored for possible watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from just
   north of WLD (in south-central KS) southwestward into a low over
   central portions of the eastern TX Panhandle. Low-level moisture
   continues to return northward/northwestward across OK this morning
   with surface dewpoints have increasing 2 to 4 deg F over the past 3
   hours across much of western OK south of this front. The surface low
   and front remained largely stationary during that time. However,
   continued eastward progression of the deep shortwave trough over the
   Southwest/northern Mexico will promote northeastward development of
   the surface low along the front. Forcing for ascent near the low
   (augmented by persistent warm-air advection) amidst the gradually
   moistening/destabilization air mass will likely lead to thunderstorm
   development. 

   Cold mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability with
   any parcels lifted from around 800-900 mb. With the strong vertical
   shear already in place, these elevated storms may become organized
   enough to produce severe hail. Trends will be monitored for possible
   watch issuance.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 01/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36250000 36909935 37219864 37339748 36719725 35689749
               34859861 34649982 36250000