Mesoscale Discussion 0010
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0912 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

   Areas affected...Oklahoma and adjacent portions of south
   central/southeastern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 1...

   Valid 101512Z - 101645Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 1 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for supercells capable of producing tornadoes may
   increase as early as Noon to 2 PM CST, mainly east of the Interstate
   35 corridor of Oklahoma, where trends are being monitored for a new
   severe weather watch.  Otherwise, scattered vigorous thunderstorm
   activity may pose a risk for severe hail across northwestern,
   central and eastern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas into early
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Mid/upper forcing for ascent, associated with an
   initial perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing
   progressing into the southern Rockies, appears to be contributing to
   the ongoing increase in thunderstorm activity across Oklahoma and
   adjacent portions of the southern Plains.  Strongest activity has
   been initially focused above/to the cool side of a quasi-stationary
   frontal zone now extending across northwestern Oklahoma into
   southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks vicinity.  However,
   considerable new thunderstorm development is now underway within the
   warm sector, across central/southern Oklahoma.

   Even within the warm sector, storms appear initially rooted above
   the boundary layer, within a zone of stronger mid-level warm
   advection (roughly around 700 mb).  South of this zone, warmer and
   more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air probably will inhibit
   convective development in the near term.

   With the northeastward progression of the more favorable large-scale
   ascent, the warm sector thunderstorm development seems likely to
   become more focused/shift east of the Interstate 35 corridor of
   Oklahoma by 17-19Z.  As it does, continuing slow surface warming may
   become increasingly conducive to boundary-layer based storm
   development, in the presence of strong deep layer shear supportive
   of supercells.  Models suggest that this will also coincided with
   strengthening south-southwesterly 850 mb flow (up to 50+ kt along an
   axis across eastern Oklahoma), and associated enlargement of
   low-level hodographs may become increasingly conducive to tornado
   development, in addition to a continuing risk for severe hail.

   ..Kerr.. 01/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36449933 37439594 36699496 35009470 34149548 34329778
               35399889 36449933